Monthly Summary

Monthly Summary July 2025

July 2025 Macro & Technical Market Summary

Stocks

Trend: The major U.S. indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, posted new record highs earlier in July but lost some momentum at month-end due to concerns around impending tariffs and mixed corporate earnings reports. The S&P 500 finished July up 2.3% and the Nasdaq up 3.7%, with tech giants such as Microsoft and Meta Platforms outperforming on the back of strong earnings. However, the market experienced late volatility as the Trump administration's tariff deadlines approached and economic data releases loomed123.
Technical Note: Stocks rallied strongly through much of July with continued leadership from 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks, though there was significant profit-taking and a pullback in the final sessions of the month.

Yields (Bonds)

Trend: U.S. Treasury yields rose in July. The U.S. 10-year yield climbed from around 4.26% to 4.35%, while the 30-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.90% at month-end. This marked a moderate upward move reflecting changing expectations for Fed policy and economic growth456.
Global: Most major sovereign bonds saw yields increase, marking risk-off sentiment and anticipation of possible rate adjustments internationally. Notable moves included German and Japanese government debt yields rising in parallel with the U.S.4.

Foreign Exchange (FX)

Trend: The U.S. dollar outperformed in July, marking its strongest month in 2025, despite having depreciated significantly earlier in the year. Flows into the dollar were attributed to safe-haven demand amid global trade uncertainty27. On a trade-weighted basis, however, the USD remained weaker compared to the start of the year8.
Crosses: The AUD/USD fell by 2.4% over July, the AUD/EUR rose 0.8%, AUD/JPY rose 2.2%, signifying notable volatility within G10 FX. The DXY index was buoyed by month-end, largely due to renewed risk aversion8.

Cryptocurrency

Trend: The crypto market saw notable gains. Ethereum led the way, rising nearly 55% in July—its strongest monthly performance in three years. Bitcoin ended July slightly higher at $118,386, mostly unchanged on the month, while Ethereum closed at $3,860 after testing higher intra-month. Institutional inflows into ETH, ETF demand, and increased network activity drove the rally91011.
Technical Note: Broader crypto sentiment was positive with three-quarters of the top 100 coins advancing at month-end. The total crypto market capitalization surpassed $3.9 trillion, despite periods of intra-month volatility1011.

Gold

Trend: Gold experienced modest downward pressure in July, closing at $3,285.65/oz, a 1.3% drop for the month. The metal exhibited a “triangle” consolidation pattern, with technical signals suggesting possible further correction if support at $3,245 is lost, but scope for a bounce if buyers regain momentum above $3,355. Flight to safe-haven assets was tempered by a stronger dollar and higher yields1213.
Technical Note: Short-term indicators point to a mixed outlook for gold into August, hinging on macro data and risk sentiment13.

Copper

Trend: Copper prices were volatile, initially rising at the start of July ahead of the U.S. 50% tariff announcement on imported copper, then declining 0.87% for the month to RMB 79,538.33/ton. Despite month-end softness, copper remained over 8% higher year-on-year. A spike in LME inventories (+36.7% in July) contributed to late downward pressure; market focus is now on tariff implementation and potential demand-side impacts14.
Technical Note: The “M-shaped” trend through July reflected shifting supply-demand expectations and tariffs. Spot copper traded at a premium to futures, signaling short-term supply tightness and uncertainty.

In conclusion, July 2025 was characterized by record performances in equities and crypto, rising global yields, a strengthening U.S. dollar, gold’s corrective drift, and copper’s tariff-driven volatility. Technical signals across these asset classes suggest key inflection points ahead as markets enter August.