Monthly Summary

Monthly Summary June 2025

June 2025 marked a pivotal month for global financial markets, characterized by broad US dollar weakness, equity market strength, and significant shifts in commodity dynamics. The month showcased complex inter-market relationships as investors navigated geopolitical tensions, central bank policies, and evolving economic conditions.

Equity Markets: Record Highs Amid Dollar Weakness

US equity markets delivered exceptional performance throughout June, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs at 6,187.681. The index benefited from sustained bullish momentum, supported by its ability to maintain trading above key confluence zones that provided technical support1. The Nasdaq similarly achieved record levels at 20,311.51, reflecting continued strength in technology sectors1.

The equity rally was fundamentally driven by broad US dollar weakness, which created favorable conditions for risk assets across global markets2. This dollar depreciation provided a tailwind for international investments and supported the overall risk-on sentiment that characterized much of the month.

Technical analysis revealed that the S&P 500's bullish structure remained intact, with the index expected to continue testing higher levels around 6,200-6,250 range1. The market's ability to sustain above critical support levels reinforced the underlying strength of the uptrend.

Foreign Exchange: Dollar Decline Dominates

The foreign exchange market was dominated by systematic US dollar weakness throughout June. The Dollar Index broke to new 2025 lows, with all major currencies gaining ground against the greenback2. The Canadian Dollar emerged as a standout performer, showing newfound strength ahead of key GDP data releases2.

The EUR/USD pair surged above 1.1600, reaching yearly highs at 1.1632 amid the weakening dollar environment3. Germany's ifo Business Climate Index climbed to 88.4 in June, its highest level in nearly a year, providing fundamental support for the euro3. The expectations component jumped to 90.7, the highest since April 2023, reinforcing positive sentiment around eurozone economic prospects3.

The dollar's decline was attributed to several factors, including eased geopolitical tensions following ceasefire announcements between Iran and Israel, which reduced safe-haven demand3. Additionally, continued oil supply from the Middle East helped ease inflation concerns and supported expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts3.

Fixed Income: Yield Curve Dynamics

Treasury markets reflected the complex interplay between monetary policy expectations and economic conditions. The 10-year Treasury yield ended June 27 at 4.39%, while the 2-year note closed at 3.30% and the 30-year at 4.85%4. This yield curve configuration suggested ongoing expectations for monetary policy adjustments.

The Federal Reserve maintained the Federal Funds Rate at 4.50% during their June meeting, providing stability that supported dollar strength in the near term5. However, market expectations for future rate cuts continued to influence longer-term yield dynamics.

Cryptocurrency: Consolidation Above Key Levels

Bitcoin demonstrated resilience by maintaining levels above $105,000 throughout June, though it faced resistance around $112,00067. The cryptocurrency market showed signs of consolidation, with Bitcoin trading around $105,800 after retreating from recent highs near $112,0007.

Technical analysis indicated that Bitcoin's long-term structure remained bullish following a decisive breakout from a descending wedge pattern in early Q27. The cryptocurrency successfully reclaimed the $95,000 and $100,000 levels, converting them into solid support zones7. Key resistance levels were identified at $106,000 and $107,000, with support maintaining around $104,000-$103,0006.

Ethereum showed signs of recovery, with potential for breaking above $2,700 to confirm an inverse head and shoulders pattern targeting $2,800-$2,8506. The Fear & Greed Index stood at 57 (Greed), indicating cautiously optimistic sentiment in the crypto markets6.

Precious Metals: Gold Consolidation and Alternative Metal Strength

Gold experienced a period of consolidation after reaching all-time highs of $3,500 in April, trading around $3,290-$3,300 by month-end89. The precious metal rose to $3,290.51 on June 30, up 0.68% from the previous day, though it remained down 2.70% for the month8. Year-to-date performance remained strong at 41.08% gains8.

Technical analysis revealed that gold faced headwinds as bulls failed to retest earlier all-time highs despite broader market strength9. The metal broke below the 50-Day Moving Average and the 3,300 key pivot level, with daily RSI momentum entering bearish territory9.

Alternative precious metals significantly outperformed gold, with platinum and palladium both gaining more than 6% in a single session2. Silver also showed strength, appreciating beyond 1.5% alongside copper2. This rotation reflected improved risk appetite and industrial demand expectations.

Base Metals: Copper Under Pressure

Copper faced significant challenges throughout June, with prices settling below the critical $5.10 barrier10. The metal traded in a range between $4.91 and $5.10, with technical analysis suggesting a bearish correctional trend targeting $4.91 and $4.85 levels10.

Despite stimulus measures from China and a weaker dollar providing some support, copper struggled with ample supply conditions in North America11. Strong ore output from South America increased risks of a wider surplus, leading traders to close long positions11. The rise in domestic copper inventories and pullback in LME inventories as metal flowed back to the United States further pressured prices11.

Inter-Market Analysis: Key Relationships

Several critical inter-market relationships shaped June's trading dynamics:

Dollar-Commodity Correlation: The inverse relationship between the US dollar and commodities was particularly pronounced, with dollar weakness supporting most commodity prices except copper, which faced supply-specific challenges2.

Stock-Bond Dynamics: Equity strength coincided with relatively stable bond yields, suggesting that the market viewed economic growth as sustainable without triggering significant inflation concerns12. Stock-bond correlations were expected to decline from 2023-24 highs as inflation expectations normalized12.

Risk-On Sentiment: The broad-based nature of dollar weakness and equity strength indicated a clear risk-on environment, supported by reduced geopolitical tensions and expectations for continued central bank accommodation outside the US2.

Precious Metals Rotation: The shift from gold to industrial precious metals like platinum and palladium reflected changing investor preferences toward assets with both safe-haven and industrial demand characteristics13.

June 2025 concluded with markets positioned for continued dollar weakness and risk asset strength, though technical levels in various markets suggested potential for consolidation or correction in the near term. The interplay between geopolitical developments, central bank policies, and economic data releases remained crucial for determining the sustainability of these trends into the second half of the year.