Monthly Summary

Monthly Summary October 2025

Here is a summarized macro and technical analysis of various asset classes up to 31 October 2025:

Stocks:

The S&P 500 rose 3.6% in October 2025, with the year-to-date return reaching 14.8%. Major indices hit all-time highs during the month on strong corporate earnings and receding economic worries.
However, late October saw some sector-specific pullbacks, notably in Big Tech stocks like Meta and Microsoft after earnings reports, causing short-term dips.
European and Asian markets experienced volatility amid trade tariff concerns and credit worries, yet rebounded with positive policy signals such as Japan's new prime minister promoting looser fiscal policy.
The FTSE 100 hit record highs boosted by rising energy stocks following US sanctions on Russia.

Bond Yields:

The US 10-Year Treasury yield edged slightly higher to around 4.10% by the end of October, reflecting cautious Federal Reserve policy and mixed economic data.
Yields have been relatively stable but remain below levels from a year prior, with expectations for a gradual decline over the next 12 months.

Foreign Exchange:

The US dollar held its range amid a resilient US economy and Fed policy easing.
The euro stayed supported by stronger Eurozone momentum and expectations that ECB easing is ending.
Sterling lagged due to weak UK growth and persistent inflation.
Commodity currencies like the Australian dollar stabilized on improving global sentiment.
Asian central banks actively smoothed FX volatility amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

Cryptocurrencies:

October 2025 was one of the worst months in nearly a decade for crypto markets, largely due to a major disruptive event around October 11 that wiped out billions and caused sharp declines in altcoins (some dropping 60-80%).
Bitcoin recovered from lows near $105,000 to rebound above $125,000 by month-end, though investor sentiment remained cautious with repeated dips into Extreme Fear.
The crypto market experienced heavy liquidations, cyberattacks, and a shakeout of over-leveraged traders, marking October as a cleansing event.

Gold:

Gold prices rose about 3.4% during October, reaching near record highs around $3,997 per troy ounce by the end of the month.
Year-over-year gold has gained over 46%, supported by geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and safe-haven demand.
Analysts expect gold to continue appreciating moderately over the next 12 months.

Copper:

Copper prices increased around 5.25% in October to about $10,901 per ton (LME cash settlement).
The metal is up roughly 17.7% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing demand tied to industrial activity and green energy trends.
Copper stock levels on the LME decreased slightly, indicating sustained consumption versus supply.

In summary, equity markets advanced overall with some volatility, bond yields remained fairly steady with a cautious Fed, FX markets showed range-bound dynamics influenced by regional economic fundamentals and policy outlooks, cryptocurrencies suffered a sharp correction but Bitcoin rebounded, and precious and industrial metals like gold and copper trended higher supported by inflation and demand factors.madisoninvestments+6