Sentiment May 14

Suppose market has bottomed on April 7:

  • ZN bottomed on Apr 11
  • Copper on April 7
  • Gold on Apr 7 and topped on Apr 22
  • Silver on Apr 7 and topped on Apr 25
  • USDJPY bottomed on Apr 22, same as DXY

DG bullish

CPCE complacent

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Dow recovered Dec low

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NAAIM more bullish

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NDXA20 hitting 85 and curling down slightly

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NYMO at bullish extreme

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VIX down

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Seasonality - May may be more equivocal between buy and sell

Conclusion: sentiment overheating even more, don't try to time the top, sell on the way up